Despite daunting poll numbers, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested in a letter last month that Democrats could save or even expand on their congressional majority.
However, long-time political analyst Charlie Cook recently wrote that he sees no evidence that her party can save itself from collapse.
Polls show Americans are feeling deeply pessimistic
“Democrats fervently hope that the reversal of Roe v. Wade, gun legislation, and the findings of the Jan. 6 committee (or some combination thereof) might galvanize their voters enough to retain at least one chamber,” Cook wrote in a piece published last week by The Cook Political Report.
“But data suggests that even a combination of all three is unlikely to be the antidote for their problems,” he insisted.
As evidence, Cook pointed to survey results showing that Americans are experiencing deep pessimism about the future, with much of their anxiety being tied to the economy.
“Inflation is running at its highest rate in more than 40 years, the National Association of Realtors reported in May that the ability of buyers to afford a home hit its lowest levels since 2006, and over half of Americans and a majority of economists are bracing for a recession in the next year or 18 months,” he noted.
What’s more, Cook pointed to President Joe Biden’s unpopularity as another factor when voters head to the polls in November.
He described midterm elections as being “report cards halfway through a president’s term,” providing the opportunity for “a midcourse correction, if not a total reversal of what happened two years earlier.”
Analyst says a Trump candidacy could help Democrats “minimize their losses”
Cook went on to draw a parallel between the way Republicans were able to slow President Barack Obama’s agenda and what would be waiting for Biden in the event of a GOP wave.
“Democrats can little afford another disastrous midterm and yet, one looks quite likely to be on the horizon,” he predicted.
Still, Cook said that one chance Democrats have involves former President Donald Trump announcing his 2024 candidacy before Americans cast their ballots.
Such a move “might energize Democratic voters enough to minimize their losses at the margins” and “has the potential to have a greater impact than abortion, guns, and Jan. 6 combined.”