The 2020 elections left Democrats with the slimmest of majorities in both the House and Senate, meaning that if President Joe Biden actually wants to accomplish his legislative goals, his party needs to show up big time come November 2022. But unfortunately for Dems, it seems insiders aren’t convinced they can pull it off.
According to Breitbart, a recent survey of senior Capitol Hill staffers showed that nearly 3 in 4 think the GOP will take back the House in next year’s midterm elections.
The finding is significant in that it paints a picture of what top congressional aides — the real movers and shakers in Washington — expect to see in the coming months.
Top aides weigh in
If the staffers’ predictions do pan out, it would throw a major wrench in the plans of President Biden, who would then be forced to contend with a split Congress that could make it difficult for him to pass major legislation.
Notably, many of Biden’s “greatest” accomplishments thus far — including a massive, and expensive, coronavirus relief bill passed in March — were pushed through Congress along party lines. Lacking the ability to do that, Biden could find his legislative agenda dead in the water.
Still, that’s exactly what staffers on the Hill expect to see, according to new findings from The Canvass, a polling project by Punchbowl News that specifically seeks out the opinions of typically in-the-know aides to members of Congress.
The most recent survey reportedly showed that a full 73% of these top staffers believe that Republicans will take back the House majority in 2022.
While that is a sizeable majority, however, it nonetheless is down five points from a previous survey on the same question.
Many factors at play
Meanwhile, some 75% of the staffers think Democrats will hold onto their majority in the Senate come 2022, up five points over last month’s survey on the topic, according to the poll. But with a 60-vote threshold needed to pass most bills, even that may not be a saving grace for Biden and Dems as they hope to turn their progressive dreams into law.
Back in the lower chamber, U.S. News & World Report notes that “Democrats hold just a 219–211 lead in the House,” meaning it wouldn’t take much for Republicans to take back control. And they have a number of factors working in their favor, including recent redistricting and historical precedent.
Traditionally, the outlet said, the president’s party “loses seats in the House” in the first midterms following their election, as voters have little other means to express their disapproval with the West Wing.
With Biden at the helm, there’s certainly a lot to disapprove of.