Despite predictions that House Democrats would expand on their majority after last year’s general election, they actually saw their advantage shrink by several seats.
Now, new census data suggests that the party could be in danger of losing the majority altogether, representing good news for the GOP and the possible future ambitions of former President Donald Trump.
What it means
The U.S. Census Bureau found that Republican-leaning states saw the highest rate of population growth over the past decade while reliably Democratic states witnessed the biggest reductions.
These developments will make for changes in congressional delegations that put Republicans in a prime position to wield more political power in the nation’s capital.
California, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York each lost a congressional seat. Oregon and Colorado were the only blue states to gain a representative.
Among red states, only two states — West Virginia and Ohio — saw their congressional seat count decrease by one. Meanwhile, GOP-leaning Montana, North Carolina, and Florida each picked up a seat while Texas gained two.
Furthermore, state legislatures will begin the process of redrawing congressional district lines based on the new census data — and that process is also expected to favor Republicans.
“Must be based upon citizenship”
Half of all U.S. states leave redistricting in the hands of nonpartisan committees. The remainder entrusts the process to their respective state legislatures, 18 of which are controlled by Republicans and only seven are in Democratic control.
For his part, Texas GOP Chairman Allen West sounded an optimistic tone in a statement welcoming the census news.
“As we redistrict for democratic representation, we must not allow the leftist ideal of representation by population to rule the day,” he said. “Representation in Texas must be based upon citizenship, and strategically we can ascertain why the left wants to flood Texas with thousands of illegals.”
In addition to congressional representation, the upcoming process could impact the 2024 presidential race and a possible second White House bid by Trump.
Last year, Trump received 232 electoral votes compared to President Joe Biden’s total of 306. If the same election played out with the new census numbers, Biden’s win would come with a slimmer margin.