Chavez-DeRemer is favored to take Oregon’s 5th District

FiveThirtyEight now has Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer favored to win Oregon’s 5th District in the U.S. House of Representatives. 

Chavez-DeRemer isn’t just favored by a little bit either. She is massively favored over her Democratic opponent, Jamie McLeod-Skinner.

The simulator

What FiveThirtyEight did was simulate the election between Chavez-DeRemer and McLeod-Skinner 40,000 times in order to see who would win most often.

Then, the outlet provided a sample of 100 outcomes that altogether give an overview of the possible results of the election for Oregon’s 5th District.

FiveThirtyEight now has Chavez-DeRemer winning 73 out of the 100 outcomes. McLeod-Skinner only wins the remaining 27 outcomes. That’s a massive advantage for Chavez-DeRemer.

A big margin of victory is possible

What’s more, is that there are many scenarios in which Chavez-DeRemer would win by a popular vote margin of greater than 10, and there are even three scenarios in which she would win by a popular vote margin of more than 20. In most scenarios, though, she would be expected to win by a popular vote margin of between zero and 10.

McLeod-Skinner, on the other hand, only has one scenario in which she convincingly wins the popular vote by a margin of more than 10. Most of the scenarios she wins would be with a popular vote margin of less than 5.

Trending favor

The other thing to note about FiveThirtyEight’s simulator is that it is significantly trending in Chavez-DeRemer’s favor.

Back at the beginning of June, the two candidates were much closer together. Out of the 100 sample election outcomes, FiveThirtyEight had Chavez-DeRemer winning about 54 and McLeod-Skinner winning 46.

So, there has been a huge trend in Chavez-DeRemer’s favor over the past month, going from 54 scenarios in which she would win to 73. The race clearly appears to be going in her favor.

The bigger picture

Republicans need to net about five seats to win back the U.S. House of Representatives this November, and most pollsters expect Republicans to be able to pull this off.

FiveThirtyEight says:

Things do not look good for Democrats in the House. Even if Democrats were to win all the races currently designated as toss-ups, plus hold on to all the seats they’re favored to win, they would still wind up short of the number they need for a majority. The national environment just isn’t favorable for Democrats, so they’re expected to lose control of this chamber.

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