Joshua Spivak, an opinion writer for The Hill, published a piece in which he argued that, despite all of the speculation to the contrary, chances are good that President Joe Biden will be the Democrats’ presidential candidate in 2024.
Spivak’s piece is titled, “Why we shouldn’t expect a Biden primary challenge or voluntary drop-out.”
The piece flies in the face of popular opinion on both sides of the aisle regarding Biden’s political future.
Numerous polls and reports have made it clear that Democrats are not on board with Biden seeking reelection in 2024.
It started with a number of reports citing Democrat insiders as arguing that the Democrats need to look for new leadership in 2024. These insiders supported their arguments with such things as Biden’s lack of success and his old age.
Following these reports, pollsters began putting the question of whether Biden ought to seek reelection directly to Americans. And, the overwhelming answer has been no, which isn’t that surprising given Biden’s abysmal favorability ratings. What is surprising, though, is that, consistently, a majority of Democrats have indicated that they are against Biden seeking reelection.
Nonetheless, Biden insists that he will be running.
Spivak’s take on Biden 2024
Spivak, in his piece, argues that “anyone counting on a primary challenge or a voluntary single term will likely be sorely disappointed.”
Spivak addresses both possibilities – Biden being primaried and Biden choosing not to seek reelection – separately.
Regarding the possibility of Biden being primaried, the writer argues that this will not happen because the Democrats won’t let it happen, and they won’t let it happen because they have learned the lesson that, historically, a party is more likely to lose control of the White House if there is intra-party fighting going on in the primary.
Regarding the possibility that Biden, himself, decides not to seek reelection, Spivak argues:
Biden had been actively pursuing the presidency for over 35 years. It beggars belief that some poor polling numbers are going to put an early end to his long goal of serving as president.
We’ll see if Spivak ends up being correct. There is still a lot of time to go between now and the 2024 presidential election – a lot can happen. But, at the moment, it is hard to believe, given the lack of Democrat support that Biden has, that he will be the Democrats’ 2024 candidate, especially considering that Biden would likely be facing a strong challenge from a strong Republican candidate.