Just days after receiving the Democrats’ nomination for the presidency, Joe Biden and his campaign for the White House got some bad news.
According to Breitbart’s Kyle Olson, last week’s Democratic National Convention did little to boost Biden’s standing in the polls, as many had expected.
Biden still leads President Donald Trump by nine points, according to Olson, but his meager bump in the polls after the convention — just a third of what Hillary Clinton saw in 2016 — may indicate that enthusiasm among the electorate is slipping for the former vice president.
Bad news for Biden
Writing for Breitbart on Saturday, Olson cited a Morning Consult poll that revealed “Biden went into the [Democrat convention] with the support of 51 percent of likely voters. Biden ticked up only one point after the convention to 52 percent,” Olson said.
“Donald Trump remained at 43 percent in both polls,” the reporter noted.
Olson went on to report that Biden’s bump in the polls — or lack thereof — barely beats out what GOP White House hopeful Mitt Romney saw in 2012, and fails to live up to Clinton’s post-convention jump in 2016.
“[A] similar poll in 2016 that found Hillary Clinton at 40 percent pre-[convention] and 43 percent after,” Olson wrote Saturday. “Trump experienced the reverse [in 2016]: 44 percent before the [convention], 40 percent after.”
Romney, for his part, lost a point in the polls following his nominating convention, according to Olson.
Breaking down the numbers
The RealClearPolitics average of polls currently gives Biden a 7.6% lead over Trump nationwide, but some state polls show a much tighter race. Of particular note in recent weeks is the state of Minnesota, where polling from the Trafalgar Group found that only 0.4% difference between Trump and Biden — well within the survey’s margin of error.
The Trafalgar Group was nearly alone among polling companies that correctly predicted then-candidate Trump’s November 2016 win.
Minnesota, the home state of embattled Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar, has long been considered safely blue; the state’s electors have gone for every Democratic presidential nominee since Republican Richard Nixon’s landslide re-election victory in 1972. But Trump lost the state by less than 2% four years ago, according to reporting by The New York Times, and recent violent protests in Minneapolis could provide Trump an opportunity to win over voters.
Though Biden may have expected to be well ahead by now, it seems at this point, it’s still anybody’s race.