Historical trends and conventional wisdom would suggest Republicans will have little trouble reclaiming the majority in the House in the 2022 midterm elections. But predictions on which party will end up in control of the now-evenly split Senate are far less clear.
There are signs that the GOP could take back the upper chamber, though — and a new poll out of Nevada is only adding fuel to the fire. According to Breitbart, an internal survey from GOP Senate hopeful Adam Laxalt’s campaign put the Republican challenger just ahead of Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto looking to November 2022.
The survey was taken by a GOP-aligned pollster on behalf of Laxalt, who is vying to take Nevada Sen. Cortez Masto’s seat in Congress’ upper chamber.
Notably, his win over the incumbent senator in the poll was well within the survey’s margin of error.
Flipping the state – and the Senate
Nevertheless, the poll shows former state Attorney General Laxalt with a two-point lead over first-term Sen. Cortez Masto, at 39% to the Democrat’s 37%.
Twelve percent of respondents were undecided, and another 12% chose neither candidate, according to Breitbart.
In a Twitter post on Tuesday, Laxalt celebrated the news. “We’re only just getting started!” he wrote. “A shock poll has our campaign ahead of the incumbent and on the road towards flipping Nevada’s Senate seat, and then the Senate itself!”
Laxalt’s tweet included a link to a Washington Examiner article about the results of the internal poll on behalf of his own campaign.
🚨BREAKING NEW POLL🚨
📈 Adam Laxalt – 39%
📉 @CatherineForNV – 37%
We’re only just getting started! A shock poll has our campaign ahead of the incumbent and on the road towards flipping Nevada’s Senate seat, and then the Senate itself! https://t.co/lj5ZH1N2TR
— Adam Paul Laxalt (@AdamLaxalt) September 28, 2021
Good news for the GOP
According to the Examiner, the poll was conducted by GOP pollster Chris Wilson between Sept. 11-15 and surveyed 504 likely voters in Nevada with a margin of error of 4.4%.
“Internal polling from September shows that this has quickly become a very tight race,” a polling memo shared with the Examiner by Laxalt’s campaign said. “With each passing day of the Biden presidency, the environment gets better for Republicans.”
The Examiner noted that while Nevada is generally considered to be a “swing state,” it has consistently leaned to the left in recent election cycles, including in 2016, 2018, and 2020. That said, the latest numbers seem to suggest the Silver State may be up for grabs as November 2022 draws closer.