The polls haven’t looked good for Trump for the last several weeks, with some showing Trump trailing Biden in a general election matchup by as many as 10 points, and Democrats have already smugly declared victory over Trump.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) exposed the reality of how manipulated those polls are in a recent interview. Slotkin represents a swing district that voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton by 7 points in 2016, and she said that she doesn’t “believe” Trump is actually lagging behind Biden.
Slotkin flips on polls
Slotkin, a former CIA analyst, told Politico: “Listen, if anyone tells me they can accurately predict what major events are coming in the remainder of 2020, I’ll give them a thousand dollars.”
“I mean, this has been the year of black swans. … I don’t for one minute think this [presidential] race is safe in anyone’s column. I’ve been literally begging people to ignore those polls. They are a snapshot in time. And if 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that we have no idea what’s coming next.”
Slotkin implied that Democrats have allowed their wishful thinking about the election to cloud their judgment and blind them to the poor polling practices that are delivering the results that they want to see instead of the actual truth.
Slotkin explained that when she hired a pollster in 2018 for her own election, she took the opportunity to explore when the polls were so devastatingly wrong in 2016.
“He told me that they fundamentally undercounted the Trump vote; that the Trump voter is not a voter in every single election, that they come out for Trump, so they’re hard to count,” Slotkin said. Most surveys are based on “likely voters,” but those who tell pollsters that they don’t currently have plans to vote are “fundamentally undercounted.”
Democrat-leaning pollsters have consistently ignored the enthusiasm of Trump’s voter base and the apathy of Biden’s base in their polling.
Though Trump has been slammed with criticism about his handling of the COVID-19 crisis and the riots and protests inspired by the death of George Floyd in May, his base remains loyal. Conversely, Biden’s base has never been enthusiastic, with many openly admitting that they’re not voting for Biden, they’re voting against Trump.
In fact, pollsters that accurately predicted the outcome of the 2016 race just released a new poll showing that Biden and Trump are tied for a general election matchup. A Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll released on Tuesday showed Biden and Trump both receiving 47 percent of the vote, leaving only six percent undecided.
Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham said that the poll found such drastically different results than other recent polls because they’ve “identified the shy Trump vote” — people that are afraid to admit they’re voting for Trump but ultimately will pull the handle for him.
“There’s no one for Biden who’s not happy to tell you they support him. There’s tremendous openness about support for Biden, though there is low enthusiasm. But among rabidly pro-Trump voters, there are some who are shy about saying they are for him,” Basham explained.