If mainstream media polling is to be believed, President Donald Trump may have real cause for concern about his chances against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden this November.
As such, The Hill reports that Democrats are setting their sights on the state of Georgia as one they can potentially flip from red to blue in the upcoming presidential election, something that hasn’t occurred since 1992.
Democrats aim to flip Georgia
That optimism from Democrats appears to stem from the fact that President Trump’s campaign recently spent nearly half a million dollars on ad buys in the state, which the left has interpreted as evidence that Trump is concerned about losing the state to Biden in November, according to The Hill.
On top of that, Democrats have also seized upon a recent Fox News poll that showed Biden with a slim two-point lead over Trump overall, with substantially larger leads on certain issues and among particular demographics, such as minorities and young voters.
That said, while the Fox poll appears to be the most recent survey of Georgia voters, the RealClearPolitics average of all state polls shows Trump retaining 4.3-point lead over Biden, just a little bit shy of the 5.1-point margin by which he won the state over failed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.
GOP remains confident
Furthermore, The Hill noted that there was plenty of reason to be “skeptical” of Democratic hopes of flipping Georgia blue, given the fact that, much like Texas, Democrats and the media talk a big game every couple of years about turning the state blue but always end up falling short of that goal.
“I’ve worked here for a decade and a half and every two years we hear about how Georgia is turning blue. It hasn’t happened,” Seth Weathers, Trump’s 2016 Georgia campaign director, told The Hill. “Sure, there have been changes in some parts of the state and it might one day flip over, but we’re not on the cusp of it as some fear or wish we would be.”
As Weathers alluded, some parts of the state have been trending more toward Democrats in recent years, particularly in and around Atlanta and the surrounding suburbs. To be sure, at this point it would probably be accurate to refer to Georgia as a purple state instead of solid red, but that said, things may not yet have moved to the point of being flippable.
“The elections here will probably be closer than we want but I just don’t see Democrats winning because by the time this all unfolds, you’ll continue to see their leftward lurch,” GOP strategist Jay Williams told The Hill. “Georgia is in play and you can’t take it for granted, but we’ll keep seeing the left-wing of their party emboldened and Georgians are just not comfortable with that.”
State “in play,” but by how much?
There are certainly plenty of signs that Georgia could be “in play” in November, as The Hill noted, such as a surge in voter registrations among key demographics favorable to Democrats, the strong push by the left to transition to mail-in ballots instead of in-person voting, and the fact that Biden could pick one of two prominent Georgia women — failed gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams or Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms — as his running mate.
But at the same time, the widespread civil unrest that has swept the country — which has been particularly troublesome and destructive in and around Atlanta — may not play as well with the average Georgia voter as Democrats may think, and the Trump campaign could capitalize on a desire for a return to law and order to keep the state in the Republican column.
It will be interesting to see just how much campaign activity from both sides transpires in Georgia over the next few months, and whether the state truly is up for grabs, or this is yet another ephemeral electoral dream for Democrats.