Democrats may be overconfident about keeping control of House

Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives in 2018, and during a recent television appearance, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) boasted that her party will add to its current majority.

Republicans aren’t so sure, though, with some pointing to what happened the last time their rivals became overconfident before an election. 

“All around the country you see this enthusiasm,” Fox News quoted Pelosi as saying in an interview with MSNBC on Friday. “We feel very confident. I know that we will win the House and increase our numbers.”

Reality check

While most polls do show Democrats poised to gain the White House and do well in Congress, they don’t appear to mesh with what is occurring on the ground.

President Donald Trump has been consistently drawing massive crowds to his rallies, whereas turnout for his Democratic rival is often meager by comparison.

What’s more, some pollsters contend that the stigma attached to voting Republican this year has made voters far more hesitant to reveal their true intentions.

“Many people called [Trump] everything from a misogynist to a racist to everything in between,” Susquehanna Polling and Research CEO Jim Lee said last week, according to RealClearPolitics.

“There are a lot of voters out there that don’t want to admit they are voting for a guy that has been called a racist; that submerged Trump factor is very real.”

As a result, Lee dismissed most of the results of most polls as being unreliable, calling them “garbage.” What’s more, he suspects that some polling firms are deliberately skewing their results in order to depress GOP voters.

GOP Congressman: “Nobody gave us a shot” in 2016

Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), who serves as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, points to the disparity between poll numbers in 2016 and the final tally.

“Nobody gave us a shot. They haven’t given us a shot since the beginning,” Emmer told Fox News. “If President Trump can perform at or above his 2016 numbers, we have a path back to the majority,” he argued, adding, “This thing is going to continue to tighten.”

Part of that optimism comes from the high profile role that far-left Democrats like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) have taken in the party. Ocasio-Cortez is a vocal supporter of the Green New Deal, a proposal that would have serious consequences for states like Pennsylvania.

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