DeSantis tops Trump in new 2024 hypothetical matchup poll

 December 10, 2022

A new poll from Yahoo News and YouGov has Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) beating former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary. 

This is one of many polls expected over the coming months in the lead-up tot he '24 election.

The results

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, was conducted between Dec. 1 and Dec. 5. The pollster surveyed some 1,635 U.S. adults.

Among the questions asked of participants was this: "If your state's 2024 Republican primary for president were held today, who would you vote for?" This question was specifically "asked of Republicans and Independents who lean Republican."

Yahoo reports that 47% chose DeSantis, whereas only 42% chose Trump.

The significance of this result

It is that Trump typically dominates the 2024 Republican primary polls. Yahoo, for example, reports:

When asked in mid-October who they “would rather see” as the 2024 GOP presidential nominee, 45% of registered voters who are Republicans or Republican leaners said Trump. Thirty-six percent said DeSantis.

The truth of the matter is that most hypothetical 2024 Republican primary polls are substantially more one-sided.

The Real Clear Politics, for example, has Trump up on average by 21.5 percentage points - 48.8% compared to 27.3% - on his next closest rival, namely, DeSantis.

It is not exactly clear why these polls from Yahoo are so different than others. It could have to do with the sample, which allows not just Republicans but those who "lean Republican" to vote.

The narrative

Since the midterm elections, there has been a clear effort by everyone from Democrats to anti-Trump Republicans to closet anti-Trump Republicans to rid the Republican Party of Trump once and for all.

The narrative centers around the results of the midterm elections. It is clear that Republicans did not perform as well as they ought to have in the midterm elections, and many have been attempting to place the blame for this on Trump and the candidates that Trump backed.

This is illogical for numerous reasons, including that Trump's candidates overwhelmingly won and that it's impossible to claim, for example, that someone like Dr. Mehmet Oz was a worse candidate than John Fetterman.

Nonetheless, this is the narrative. And, there are signs that some Republicans appear to be buying into this narrative - although, this may be changing as the narrative is exposed as false and as Elon Musk releases more "Twitter Files" showing the extent to which Twitter went to prevent Trump from being reelected.

At the end of the day, there is still a lot of time between now and the 2024 Republican primary. A lot can happen between now and then - DeSantis hasn't even announced whether he will run. And so, it's probably best not to read too much into such polls, especially this one from Yahoo, which may just be an attempt to further the anti-Trump narrative.

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