While most major polling firms have Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by a significant margin with Election Day just over the horizon, some new surveys are telling a different story.
It’s those new models that have former House Speaker Newt Gingrinch predicting a big win for Trump in the Electoral College: 324–214.
The former Georgia congressman and noted conservative said in a tweet Sunday that a new poll from the Des Moines Register, as well as a survey from the Democracy Institute, has “convinced” him that the race for the White House “will not be close.”
My best estimate two days before the election is Trump 324 electoral votes Biden 214. The Des Moines Register poll showing Trump winning Iowa 48-41 and the Democracy Institute Poll showing Trump winning popular vote by 1 and swing states by 5 convinced me this will not be close.
— Newt Gingrich (@newtgingrich) November 1, 2020
270 to win
The magic number that a presidential candidate needs to hit in the Electoral College to clinch a win is 270. But as he noted in his Sunday tweet, Gingrich thinks Trump will surpass that easily.
His forecast is based in part on an Iowa poll published Saturday by the Des Moines Register. Conducted among 814 likely voters in the Hawkeye State from Oct. 26–29, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll represented a major turn-around for the incumbent president over a September survey by the same pollster, which showed Trump and Biden in a dead heat, with 47% support each.
In the latest poll, the Des Moines Register reports, “Trump has taken over the lead,” while “Biden has faded.”
“The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%,” the Register added in its report. “Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren’t sure and 5% don’t want to say for whom they will vote.”
More good news
Gingrinch also cited on Sunday a Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll that put Trump ahead of Biden by a single point in the national popular vote. The president was also about four points ahead of his challenger in key battleground states like Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Democracy Institute said in a report on its findings.
Democracy Institute claims that its polling results are more accurate than those of other firms because the company “only looks at people identifying as likely voters instead of just registered to vote and it has tried to identify the shy Trump vote.” The group adds that its poll “has throughout the campaign been one of the few to predict a Trump victory.”
Among its other findings were that 79% of those who back the president “would not admit it to friends and family, compared to 21 percent of Biden supporters.” Democracy Institute also reported that only 25% of its respondents believe Trump has been “too tough” in responding to recent nationwide unrest, while a full 45% felt he has not been tough enough. Thirty percent of respondents said they were satisfied with Trump’s response.
Trump was also the clear winner when it came to which candidate is more willing to confront China, with 72% siding with the incumbent president, while less than 30% chose Biden. It all bodes well for the current commander-in-chief as he looks to win another four years in the White House this Tuesday.