New York has been hit particularly hard by the coronavirus pandemic, with over 2,000 deaths from COVID-19 in New York City alone, according to a Johns Hopkins University tracker. But a new report from Breitbart suggests that there may be some good news amid this bleak portrait.
Breitbart reported Friday that a model predicting the number of hospitalizations due to the coronavirus in the U.S. “appears to dramatically overstate” the actual number of hospitalizations caused by the disease — “even in New York state.”
The model was cited by the White House and President Donald Trump’s coronavirus task force, according to Breitbart — but when compared to the real data, it just doesn’t add up.
A look back
According to the model, which came from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), New York state should be in dire straits right now as it approaches a “peak” in the coronavirus outbreak slated for next week.
The IHME model predicted that, as of April 5, New York would need 69,175 hospital beds for COVID-19 patients, with 12,346 patients in need of an ICU bed and 9,879 in need of a ventilator.
However, according to New York state’s own COVID tracking site, there were less than 16,000 hospitalized patients in the state on April 5, with only 4,126 in an ICU.
New York’s tracker doesn’t list the number of patients needing ventilator assistance.
A look ahead
To be sure, the coronavirus outbreak certainly isn’t letting up — at least not yet. The U.S. has already lost close to 10,000 to COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins, and the numbers are only climbing.
Nearly 340,000 Americans are currently infected.
But whether it’s because of social distancing and stay-at-home orders or simply because the U.S. more equipped to handle the pandemic than experts contended, the data suggests that the coronavirus crisis isn’t hitting us quite as hard as once believed — and that’s certainly news to celebrate.
In fact, President Donald Trump is hopeful that the U.S. can be fully opened back up by this fall — just in time for football season.
“I want fans back in the arenas,” Trump said at a White House press briefing Saturday, according to ESPN. “And the fans want to be back, too. They want to see basketball and baseball and football and hockey. They want to see their sports.”