Highly respected Iowa poll shows Trump ahead by 7 points on eve of election

A highly respected poll in Iowa released Sunday shows President Donald Trump with a seven point lead over challenger Joe Biden, an identical margin to the one Trump held over Hillary Clinton in 2016 in the same poll. 

Trump had 48% support in the poll while Biden only had 41% in the poll, which surveyed 816 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.5%. A full 5% of voters in the poll said they didn’t want to say who they were voting for.

The Seltzer & Co. poll, called the most respectable poll in Iowa and used as a harbinger of how the race will go, saw a swing of seven points in just one month in the state. In September, the same poll saw the two candidates tied at 47% each.

The poll could bring about a sense of deja vu, since a 2016 poll also showed Trump 7% ahead in the state. Trump ended up winning the state by 9%.

Breaking down the numbers

According to the poll, both women and independent voters have moved back toward Trump compared to previous polls. Biden’s one-time 20-point lead with women has dwindled to just 9 points, while Trump still leads with men by more than 20 points.

Pollster Ann Seltzer said the demographic breakdown of voters is similar to 2016.

One difference is the number of voters who have already cast their ballots. In the current poll, 51% have already voted. Of those who have voted, Democrats voted for Biden 55% to 32%, while those who have yet to vote favor Trump 64% to 28%.

Numbers swinging toward Trump

The poll has historically been used to predict not only Iowa, but other midwestern swing states nearby. Most states in the region have seen a swing toward Trump in recent weeks.

In Wisconsin, Republicans lead in early voting by 8%; Democrats usually lead early voting by a large margin.

A Trafalgar Group poll in Michigan has Trump ahead in that state by 2.4%, which is within the margin of error.

As the Des Moines Register headline said, Biden “fades” in most recent polls and Trump is rising every day as he does multiple rallies in key battleground states.

Tuesday is the deadline for those last undecided stragglers to make up their minds.

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