J.D. Vance pulls ahead of Tim Ryan in new poll

Another poll has Republican J.D. Vance pulling ahead of Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) in the race for Ohio’s open U.S. Senate seat. 

This latest poll comes from Emerson College. It is the final poll that will come from the pollster before the midterm elections take place.

Polls have Vance ahead

Emerson College surveyed 1,000 “very likely voters” in Ohio from October 30 to November 1. And, what the pollster found is that Vance has a solid lead over Ryan: 51% to 43%.

As for the whereabouts of the remaining six percentage points, Emerson College reports that 4% of participants were “undecided.” It is not clear where the remaining two percentage points went.

But, Emerson College further reports, “with undecided voters’ support accounted for, Vance’s support increases to 53% and Ryan to 44%.”

One last important point to make is that the trend, in these Emerson polls, has been in Vance’s favor. The pollster reports that “since the October poll, Vance has gained five percentage points and Ryan has lost two.”

Other polling

The poll aggregator Real Clear Politics also has Vance in the lead. In fact, he is in the lead, on average, by five percentage points: 49.3% to 44.3%.

All of the recent polls that were factored into those averages, i.e. polls that were taken over the past month or so, have Vance in the lead, and all the polls that were taken in November have Vance in the lead significantly, by five percentage points or more.

What this shows is that, as the midterms have drawn nearer, the polls have been trending significantly in Vance’s direction.

The big picture

The race between Vance and Ryan is another one of those crucial races for determining which party will be in control of the U.S. Senate following the midterms.

The Senate is currently split 50 to 50 with the tie-breaking vote going to Vice President Kamala Harris, effectively giving the Democrats a 51 to 50 majority. There is no telling which party is going come out of the midterms with control over the Senate, although recent polling now suggests that the Republicans now have a slight advantage.

While it is true that the U.S. Senate seat that Vance and Ryan are competing for already belongs to a Republican, if Republicans want to regain control of the Senate, this is one of the seats they have to keep hold of.