Democrats lead in early voting, but Election Day surge could tip race to Trump

Citing concerns over the coronavirus, Democrats and presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are relying heavily upon absentee and mail-in ballots from their supporters to win the election.

Meanwhile, Republicans fear the increased potential for election fraud to swing the election via the heavy use of mail-in ballots. However, a recent piece in the American Thinker explains why those fears are likely overblown and how Democrats may have undermined their own chances by pushing so hard for vote-by-mail options.

Early lead for Democrats

First off, it must be acknowledged that many Americans have taken advantage of the additional options in many states to cast an absentee or mail-in ballot or participate in in-person early voting — more than 58.4 million so far, according to The Washington Post.

Of those more than 58.4 million ballots already received, at least 28.9 million are in crucial battleground states and, admittedly, at least for the states that report the partisan breakdown, Democrats have surged ahead to an early lead in most states. According to data analysis by University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, of more than 26 million ballots cast with identifiable party registrations, about 13.1 million were by Democrats, about 7.4 million were from Republicans, and about 6 million had no party affiliation.

That said, in an interview with The Guardian, McDonald said, “The irony here is Democrats are actually doing Republicans a favor,” and explained, “It should benefit Republicans who are trying to vote on election day that the Democrats have done them this favor of not standing in line in front of them.”

Thus, given the fact that Republicans are expected to turn out in droves on Election Day to vote in-person, the key questions are, how many of those early votes for Democrats are new voters and how many of them would have otherwise voted on Election Day? Furthermore, is the Democrat lead being built as we speak enough to withstand the anticipated Election Day surge of Republicans?

Good signs for Trump

Writing for the American Thinker, Tom Zawistowski, president of the We The People Convention, presents the data-driven reasons why President Donald Trump and his supporters should be optimistic while Biden and the Democrats should be growing increasingly worried.

With respect to concerns over potential fraud from the mass mailing of ballots to all registered voters, that is only happening in 10 states, eight of which are solidly blue and the other two likely to remain red, meaning none of the states will likely play a factor in the final Electoral College count.

Another 14 states mailed out applications for absentee ballots to all registered voters, but there is a difference between absentee ballots — for which there are voter verification requirements — and mail-in ballots, so the potential for fraud or an unknown number of late-arriving ballots there is rather low.

Then there is the map itself, which, despite what may be said in the media, favors Trump more than Biden, and various scenarios show that Trump has multiple paths to victory and can afford to lose a few states here and there while Biden nearly has to run the board and win virtually every swing state to have a chance at victory.

Finally, again in spite of what the polls may say, President Trump’s level of support, particularly among key constituencies, has grown since 2016, including among Republicans, Catholics and Evangelical Christians, and Black and Hispanic voters. This growth could potentially account for several million more votes for the president.

In the end, Zawistowski argues, while Democrats and the media can cheer the party’s lead among early voters, that lead is nowhere close to being insurmountable.

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