House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and other Democrats in Congress just got some bad news about their prospects for the 2022 midterm elections.
Writing in a Sunday op-ed for The Hill, lawyer and pundit Douglas Schoen charged that unless Democrats make some “drastic changes” going into the 2022 midterms, they’re “on track to lose big” to the GOP.
Schoen said Dems are on a downward trend thanks in part to “marked decline in support for President [Joe] Biden and his administration nationally and in key swing states” in the wake of a botched withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan that ended in the Taliban taking over the country and left more than a dozen service members dead.
“Nationally, 50 percent of voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president,” the columnist wrote Sunday, citing a recent Civiqs poll, “while just 42 percent approve.”
Dems’ “best hope”
Schoen isn’t the only one to make this observation: An August report from NBC News conceded that Democrats’ narrow majority in the “is in serious danger,” with “early indicators” showing that Dem lawmakers “poised to make big gains in Congress four years ago now point the other direction.”
At the time, the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman told NBC that Dems had an uphill battle ahead of them, and that their best was hope was Biden staying on voters’ good sides.
“Democrats’ best hope is that Biden’s approval rating stays above 50 percent and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without [Donald] Trump on the ballot,” he told the outlet.
But Biden is currently sitting far below 50% in the polls, as Schoen noted — and pollsters have said the numbers aren’t moving much even as weeks pass since the Afghanistan debacle.
“Troubling for Democrats”
All in all, Schoen said, the “data is clearly troubling for Democrats — especially when taken together with the fact that the mere circumstances of the 2022 midterms are challenging for the party.”
According to the columnist, the GOP needs just five more seats to take the majority in the House, “and redistricting alone could cost Democrats close to or even more than that number.”
“Further,” Schoen writes, “since World War II, only twice has the president’s party gained seats in the midterm elections — in 1998 and 2002, when both presidents had approval ratings over 60 percent and, even so, saw only meager House seat gains.”
Biden and Democrats still have a little over a year to go, but unless something changes soon, November 2022 could spell disaster for Pelosi and company. The numbers don’t lie.