The professor behind the Primary Model, a way of predicting presidential election winners that has correctly predicted all but two elections since 1912, is giving President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning re-election in 2020 over presumptive Democrat challenger Joe Biden, The Washington Times‘ Jennifer Harper reports.
The current version of the Model was established by Stony Brook University political science professor Helmut Norpoth in 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning in November. This model has picked the winner in all but two elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced, including, of course, Trump’s victory in 2016,” Norpoth told Harper.
“Not the only failure”
According to Harper, the Model predicted on March 7, 2016 that Trump had an 87% chance to beat Hillary Clinton, which he of course did. At the time, opinion polls unanimously showed Clinton winning, Norpoth reminded.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth said, according to Harper. “The list is long and discouraging for early front-runners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004 — to cite just the most spectacular cases.”
Investors Business Daily was one of the only polls in 2016 to correctly predict a Trump victory. The outlet has attributed the incorrect polls to “Democrat bias.”
Beating the odds again?
Currently, Trump lags by nearly double digits in most polls, including polls of battleground states, according to RealClearPolitics. With the election coming up in just four months, many political pundits are beginning to talk about Trump losing in November.
But a lot can (and undoubtedly will) happen in four months, and it is too soon to tell how things will turn out.
After all, Democrats thought they had Trump beat when they appointed Special Counsel Robert Mueller to dig up dirt on him, but three years of that produced nothing of any substance.
Dems further thought they had Trump when they impeached him, but public sympathy went against them because they overplayed their hand and Trump’s poll numbers went up, according to Gallup data.
And let’s not forget that Joe Biden, whose cognitive ability has recently been called into question, has not yet had to debate Trump or even leave his basement more than half a dozen times since March.
Only time will tell how November’s election ultimately plays out, but it certainly looks like Uncle Joe has the deck stacked against him.