This is bad news for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden…
Political science professor and modeler Helmut Norpoth thinks President Donald Trump has a 90% chance of winning re-election to a second term in November — and his model has a 92% accuracy rate over the last 27 presidential elections.
Norpoth said in August that his “Primary Model” takes data from states’ primary elections and uses it to predict the winner once nominees are chosen.
“I focus on early primaries and the way the candidates perform in those early contests,” Norpoth said in a press release. “It’s a very good predictor, and a leading indicator of what’s going to happen in November.”
He was one of only a very few who predicted Trump would win in 2016, and he correctly predicted every other presidential race since 1996 except for George W. Bush’s win over Al Gore in 2000.
Norpoth surprised at his model’s prediction
Norpoth said he was surprised at his model’s prediction given that Trump has been running behind Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in most polls since before Biden was even officially chosen as the party’s nominee.
“When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes … I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict,” Norpoth said. On the other hand, Biden only got 8.4% in New Hampshire.
Polls have been narrowing in recent weeks, with Rassmussen putting Trump a point ahead of Biden in its most recent polling.
Trump trailed in most polls in 2016 against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in a similar fashion, but went on to win the Electoral College by a healthy margin even while losing the popular vote.
Biden’s reticence to travel for his campaign, take questions from reporters, and speak to people in-person have been hurting his candidacy, as well as his reluctance to address and condemn the violent riots taking place in many large cities.
Trump has managed to make himself the “law and order” candidate at a time when 42% of Americans have seen protests and violence in their cities.
In those areas — mostly large Democrat-run cities — Trump’s approval rating is reportedly at 63%, more than 10 points higher than in areas not experiencing rioting.