Fox News reports that a new Iowa poll has Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) significantly favored to retain his U.S. Senate seat in the midterm elections.
In fact, just about all forecasters are now suggesting that Grassley is surging to victory over his Democrat challenger, Mike Franken.
The latest Iowa poll
The poll was conducted by Selzer & Co. on behalf of the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. Between Oct. 31 and Nov. 3, the pollster surveyed 801 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The pollster found that Grassley is significantly in the lead by 12 percentage points, 53% to 41%.
As for the remaining six percentage points, 3% stated that they would vote for someone other than Grassley or Franken, 2% of participants indicated that they are unsure about who they are going to vote for, and 1% refused to reveal their pick.
Selzer called Grassley’s lead, “seemingly insurmountable,” reporting that Grassley appears to have much stronger support from his base than Franken.
The pollster stated:
It’s a seemingly insurmountable lead, though anything can happen. This is a very good poll for Chuck Grassley. He gets not only the overall lead but the strong support of the people who are the core of his base. And Franken, by comparison, it’s more lukewarm among his base.
More forecasts, same result
As stated at the outset, just about all forecasts now have Grassley retaining his U.S. Senate seat.
FiveThirtyEight, for example, has Grassley “clearly favored” to beat Franken. The forecaster has Grassley beating Franken in 97 out of 100 scenarios, suggesting that a Grassley victory is a foregone conclusion at this point.
Real Clear Politics doesn’t have many polls for the race between Grassley and Franken, just the new one from the Des Moines Register, a couple from October, and one from July. Grassley was ahead in all.
Something else that is going in Grassley’s favor, though, is the trend of the polls. For example, in the previous Des Moines Register poll, which was taken in October, Grassley was only up by three percentage points. But, in the new poll, he has extended his lead to 12 percentage points.
The bottom line is that all signs would seem to suggest that this particular race is going to be a blowout.