New polling model predicts a narrow GOP Senate victory

In recent months, many observers have argued that Democrats are poised to retain their narrow hold on the Senate following this year’s midterm elections.

Yet if a new projection model published by RealClearPolitics is to be believed, then Republicans are on track to score an upset victory. 

Polling model predicts that Republican will make gains in several states

According to the model, Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz has a small lead over his Democratic opponent, Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman.

It also shows former Nevada Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt slightly ahead of incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.

Meanwhile, the model also indicates that Arizona Republican Blake Masters has a shot at unseating current Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. What’s more, the model predicts that Republicans will hold on to their seats in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

The news isn’t all good for Republicans, however, as the model has Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock successfully fending off a challenge from Republican candidate and former football star Herschel Walker.

If all of the model’s predictions turn out to be true, then Republicans will end up with 52 Senate seats compared with 48 for Democrats.

Newsweek contributor says polls continue to favor Democrats

However, not everyone agrees with RealClearPolitics’ assessment. In an article published on Saturday, Newsweek contributor Katherine Fung said she didn’t think Republicans had the necessary polling numbers to gain seats.

“If the current polls are on track to predict the results of the 2022 midterms, Democrats will successfully keep control of the Senate, despite historical patterns that show the minority party with an advantage in the midterm elections,” she wrote.

“With a month until Election Day, Democrats are poised to win in five of seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Recent polling suggests Republicans are still on track to flip Nevada and Wisconsin,” Fung continued.

Still, she did acknowledge that “forecasting elections has become increasingly hard” as the 2020 election saw a wide disparity in some states between poll numbers and actual results.

Fung noted how most polls in October of 2020 “predicted much larger wins for President Joe Biden than the victories he actually saw over former President Donald Trump.”