Democrat nominee Joe Biden has held a comfortable lead over President Trump in national polls for some weeks now, and the mainstream media has already declared Biden as the clear victor ahead of the election.
However, new evidence is mounting that the Democrat party’s smug declaration of victory is quite premature. According to a new Hill-HarrisX general election poll, Biden’s 10-point lead in June has dropped to a four-point lead, which pollsters called “very concerning.”
Biden is slipping
Civil unrest coupled with coronavirus-related economic damage opened the door for Biden to receive a boost in the polls for some weeks, but his time may be up.
The Hill reported: “Forty-three percent of registered voters said they would support Biden for president if the election were held today. By contrast, 39 percent of voters in the July 3-4 survey said the same of Trump.” Only eight percent of voters were undecided, a one-point drop from last month.
“I think a four-point lead should be very concerning,” Democratic pollster Terrance Woodbury, told the Hill. “We know the enthusiasm gaps between Biden and Trump, with Trump’s supporters being very enthusiastic and insistent on voting for him, margins that close are problematic.”
Democrats avoid talking about Biden’s poor voter enthusiasm as much as possible, but the enthusiasm of Trump’s strong base could again be the deciding factor in November.
A recent poll illustrated the shocking disparity between Trump and Biden’s voter bases, finding that half of Trump’s base is “very excited” to vote for him in November, versus only 27 percent of Biden’s voters saying the same.
Biden lacks enthusiasm in one of the most key demographics to the upcoming election: Black voters. Chryl Laird, assistant professor of government at Bowdoin College, told USA Today on Wednesday that “[Young Black voters] are going to have some reservations about Joe Biden,” explaining that he’s the “image of a status quo politician.”
Primary model favors Trump
Though most polls favor Biden currently, Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth stands by the “Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted the winner of five out of the last six elections and all but two of all elections in the last 108 years.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said on Wednesday. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth continued, pointing out that Biden’s poor showing in the first several primaries points to an epic loss in November.
Norpoth claimed that based on Trump’s voter enthusiasm and Biden’s poor early showing, Trump will rally in the next four months to win the electoral college by an even wider margin than in 2016.