While incumbency is often regarded as an advantage for office holders, a series of new polls suggest that some incumbent Democrats have reason to worry ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
Surveys from six congressional districts show incumbent Democrats behind or tied
According to Breitbart, each of the surveys was carried out among 400 likely midterm voters last month by polling firm RMG Research.
One showed Democratic Rep. Susie Lee three points behind her Republican challenger April Becker in Nevada’s 3rd district.
Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne was even further behind in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, with RMG Research’s poll showing her losing by eight points to Republican state Rep. Zach Nun.
Also struggling is Democratic New Jersey Rep. Tom Malinowski, with RMG Research’s survey putting him eight points behind Republican challenger Tom Kean in the state’s 7th congressional district.
What’s more, Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids trailed Republican Amanda Adkins by a single point according to a poll from Kansas’ 2nd congressional district.
Meanwhile, two other polls showed Democratic incumbents running dead even with their Republican opponents. They were Rep. Josh Harder in California’s 9th district and Rep. Jahana Hayes in Connecticut’s 5th district.
Other polls suggest serious problems for Democrats
Breitbart noted that RMG Research’s polls are the only source of concern for Democrats, as it reported that there are internal GOP surveys which should give pause as well.
They show Republicans doing “well, if not better than Democrats, in typically safe seats that Joe Biden carried in the last presidential election by between 11 and 15 points.”
Among them are Oregon’s 6th and 4th congressional districts along with Colorado’s 7th congressional district and California’s 13th congressional district. All of them are currently represented by Democrats.
Also of concern to Democrats are recent polls showing that a growing number of Hispanic voters appear to be leaning towards the Republican Party.
A New York Times-Siena College poll published last month found Latino Americans to be almost evenly split in their partisan preferences this year. The Times noted that this is a far cry from the 47-point advantage which Democrats held in 2018.