Following the conclusion of last week’s Democratic National Convention, party leaders and pundits heralded the weeklong event as a unifying point in the presidential campaign season.
But in a sign of a potential collapse for Democrats’ White House hopes, online gamblers appear to be losing confidence in Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s ability to win in November, as reported by the Washington Examiner.
“More than halved since its peak”
The news was first reported by Smarkets, the betting market website used to track such wagers.
As of Wednesday afternoon, fewer than 55% of the online bets being placed ahead of the presidential election favored the Democratic challenger, according to the Examiner.
Though Biden maintains a lead over President Donald Trump, the latest results reflect a much narrower margin over bets from last month. July ended with more than 61% of bettors believing Biden would win, the Examiner noted.
Smarkets political analyst Patrick Flynn explained that Biden’s lead over the incumbent Republican “in our ‘Next President’ market has more than halved since its peak at the beginning of August.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s standing at 43% marks his most optimistic showing in more than two months, Flynn said, noting that it is unclear what role the recent Democrat convention might have played in the shift.
“We do not know whether this is due to the content of the event itself or the fact this scaled-down edition took place virtually in the midst of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic,” he explained.
“A window of opportunity”
New polling data compiled by Morning Consult additionally shows that the convention appears to have netted Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden a gain of just one percentage point in public support.
In any case, it appears that this is an opportunity for the Trump re-election campaign to capitalize on what Flynn called “something of a window of opportunity” ahead of the conclusion of this week’s Republican National Convention.
As Newsweek reported this week, Trump’s approval rating is on the upswing across six important swing states, although Biden maintains a lead across the board.
In typical election years, a party’s convention is correlated with a bump in the polls for the respective presidential nominee. The latest polls and other statistics, however, appear to serve as further evidence that this campaign season is anything but typical.