With midterm elections approaching next year, many Republicans are feeling bullish that their party will regain control of Congress. At least for now, most voters seem to agree with that assessment.
A new Rasmussen survey shows that 6 in 10 voters believe Democrats will lose their advantage in the House of Representatives next year.
Historical trends could apply
That number is roughly twice as high as the 30% of respondents who believe Democrats will remain in power after the upcoming elections. Roughly 35% said it is “very” likely that the GOP takes back the House and 10% of those surveyed are unsure.
Republicans are more likely to report a belief that their party will take back control, with about 3 in 4 sharing such an opinion. More than half say the result is very likely.
Nearly half of Democrats also think it is likely their party loses control, including 22% who say it is very likely. Among politically unaffiliated respondents, 56% believe the GOP will regain a legislative majority.
Republicans have long expressed confidence ahead of the upcoming midterms, pointing to negative trends such as rising inflation and a sagging approval rating for the Biden administration.
Additionally, historical trends clearly favor the party out of power in midterm congressional races.
More bad news for Democrats
As many Americans grow increasingly anxious about rising crime rates and an ongoing border crisis, a lack of confidence in President Joe Biden’s policies could further play into the hands of Republican candidates.
Republicans have also waded further into the current culture war, railing against hot-button issues like critical race theory and potentially endearing themselves to voters who have similar misgivings about the direction of American society.
Another potentially troubling sign for progressive politicians is the result of the recent New York City Democratic mayoral primary race. Former police captain Eric Adams triumphed with a relatively tough-on-crime message amid a vocal outcry among some in his party to “defund the police.”
Of course, the Biden administration appears to have taken notice, with the president recently announcing his plan to tackle rising violent crime rates with more gun control and a debunked message that sought to blame Republicans as the party guilty of defunding law enforcement.
Even with a narrow majority on Capitol Hill, Biden has largely failed to advance his policies through Congress. Things would become far more challenging for his administration if Democrats lose control of the House next year.