Poll finds that an indictment of Trump will likely backfire

March 25, 2023

A new poll has found that an indictment of former President Donald Trump would be likely to help his 2024 campaign for the U.S. presidency. 

The poll comes from the Trafalgar Group.

It was conducted by the pollster between March 20 and March 22, 2023. 1,081 "likely general election voters" were surveyed in the poll. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

The question that participants were asked is this:

How do you believe the New York City district attorney's indicting former President Donald Trump--related to an alleged "hush money" payment to a porn star before the 2016 election--will affect Trump's 2024 campaign?

The results

The Trafalgar Group, in its poll, found that 36.8% of participants believe that an indictment of Trump would help his 2024 campaign.

This, however, doesn't mean that the remaining 64% think it would hurt his campaign. In fact, only 25.7% of participants expressed their opinion that such an indictment would hurt Trump's campaign.

The remaining 37.5% said that an indictment would have "no effect either way" on Trump's 2024 presidential campaign.

The pollster further broke the results down by the party affiliation of the poll participant.

Among Republican participants, 56.2% expressed their belief that an indictment would help Trump's campaign. 33.6% of "no party/other" participants said the same. However, the corresponding figure for Democratic participants was only 14.8%.


Last week, Trump released a message indicating that he had received information that he was about to be indicted, and thus arrested, by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who has been linked to liberal billionaire George Soros.

The indictment is said to be related to payments that Trump allegedly made, in 2016, to adult film star Stormy Daniels for the purpose of preventing Daniels from speaking about an alleged affair that she and Trump had. Trump denies any wrongdoing and maintains that Bragg's actions, here, are politically motivated.

Since the news broke, Bragg and his office have faced a significant backlash. And, for the time being, it appears that Bragg - who is facing an investigation from House Republicans over the matter - has, at the very least, delayed - if not completely backed away from - indicting Trump.

The backlash has stemmed from the fact that, according to legal experts, Bragg does not have a solid case against Trump. In fact, many experts have opined that Bragg's case is extremely weak, which has only lent support to the idea that Bragg's actions here are politically motivated.

It remains to be seen how this will all play out. But, in the meantime, the polls seem to be suggesting - much to the dismay of Bragg and the Democrats - that this whole narrative is only benefiting Trump.

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