A newly-released poll has both good news and bad news for conservatives.
The good news is that former President Donald Trump would be expected to beat either President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris in a 2024 matchup for the presidency. But, the bad news is that the Republicans’ other top candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), wouldn’t.
A one-horse race
This latest poll comes from Harvard/Harris. The pollster surveyed 1,989 registered voters between November 30th and December 2nd.
Like countless polls that have been released over the past several months, Harvard/Harris found that Trump would dominate the Republican 2024 primary if it were held today. Trump received an overwhelming 67 percent of the vote, whereas former Vice President Mike Pence came in second with 9 percent, and DeSantis came in third with 8 percent.
With Trump out of the lineup, however, DeSantis catapults into first, with 30 percent of the vote, and Pence, second, with 25 percent. No one else comes close.
The results for the 2024 Democrat primary are less convincing. Biden would win, if he runs again, with 36 percent of the vote, and Harris would come in second with 16 percent. But, without Biden in the lineup, Harris would become the favorite with 31 percent of the vote.
So, to sum up, Trump would be expected to be the Republicans’ 2024 candidate, if he runs; if not, then DeSantis. And, Biden would be expected to be the Democrats’ 2024 candidate, if he runs; if not, then Harris.
So, how would these races turn out?
The pollster put Trump up against Biden and then against Harris. And, Trump won, both times.
Against Biden, Trump received 48 percent of the vote, Biden received 45 percent, and “don’t know/unsure” received 8 percent. And, against Harris, Trump won more easily with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Harris’s 41 percent, and the 9 percent of “don’t know/unsure.”
DeSantis, however, didn’t have such luck against Biden or Harris.
Against Biden, DeSantis only received 36 percent of the vote, whereas Biden received 43 percent, and “don’t know/unsure,” 21 percent. And, against Harris, DeSantis only did slightly better, receiving 37 percent compared to 42 percent for Harris and 21 percent for “don’t know/unsure.”
What kind of conclusions we can draw from this are unclear. But, it’s worth pointing out that “don’t know/unsure” received a lot more votes in the matchups with DeSantis, which might suggest that voters don’t really know what to make of him yet.