When it comes to national polling data, President Donald Trump is widely considered to be trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the race for the presidency. But a newly released poll indicates that Biden’s once-strong lead may soon fall apart.
The poll found that 46% of likely voters support Trump while 45% favor the Democratic nominee. According to the Democracy Institute, these results suggest the president “is still on course for victory.”
Trump leading in swing states
Besides the good news for Trump at the national level, the poll also put the incumbent president ahead in critical swing states including Florida, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.
The poll surveyed 1,500 respondents between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2, and had a 2.5% margin of error, according to the Democracy Institute.
According to Sunday Express, the Democracy Institute specifically targets “likely voters” in its polls to get the most accurate result.
“While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as ‘likely voters’ rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote,” the Sunday Express explained.
The president gains ground
Director of the Democracy Institute Patrick Basham said Biden should be especially concerned about having “low support and enthusiasm” among Black voters, as the Sunday Express reported.
According to Basham, it could end up being the Biden campaign’s “Achilles Heel.”
“Trump and Biden’s respective standings on this specific issue epitomize Biden’s overarching Achilles’ Heel in this election: comparatively low support and enthusiasm for his candidacy among Black voters,” Basham explained.
“To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 Black votes, and lots of Black voters to cast ballots,” he added. “Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in 10, with two out of 10 Black voters ready to support Trump, and overall Black turnout looking to be flat, at best.”
Another poll from Investor’s Business Daily shows 36.5% support for the president among Hispanic voters and 15% support among Black voters. If accurate, those numbers represent a significant growth of support for the president from four years ago — meaning Biden and his campaign team certainly have something to worry about as Election Day draws closer.