Poll has J.D. Vance in the lead for Ohio U.S. Senate seat

Breitbart News reports that a new poll has Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance leading Democrat Tim Ryan in the Ohio race for a U.S. Senate seat. 

The poll comes from Emerson College – it’s the first one conducted by the pollster for the November election between Vance and Ryan. The pollster surveyed 925 “somewhat and very likely general election voters,” between Aug. 15 and 16. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

The findings

The pollster asked participants, “if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for at this time?”

A majority of participants – 45% – chose Vance. 42% chose Ryan, 4% chose “someone else,” and 10% chose “undecided.”

One thing to point out is that Vance’s three percentage point lead over Ryan is within the poll’s margin of error. Another thing is that the race is close enough that the 10% who chose “undecided” could still play a significant role in determining the winner. Also worth mentioning is that when the results are restricted to “very motivated and very likely” voters Vance only has a one percentage point lead.

That being said, when participants were asked, “regardless of whom they support, which candidate they expect to win,” 52% chose Vance, whereas 48% chose Ryan.

Ohio voters who are more concerned about healthcare and abortion access are significantly more likely to vote for Ryan over Vance, by a 66-point and an 83-point margin, respectively. On the other hand, voters more concerned about the economy are more likely to vote for Vance, by a 35-point margin. It should be noted, though, that 50% say the economy is the most important issue, whereas only 12% and 10%, respectively, say the same about abortion access and healthcare.

Trump v. Biden, Dems v. Republicans

Not only is this the first Emerson College poll of Ohio’s November U.S. Senate Election, but – perhaps significantly – this is the first poll since the FBI conducted its unprecedented raid on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate.

It is not clear if this is motivating voters to vote for Vance, the Trump-endorsed candidate. But, it would motivate voters to vote for Trump should he decide to run in 2024, the pollster found.

In a hypothetical matchup between Trump and President Joe Biden, 53% chose Trump compared to 39% for Biden. And, a plurality of voters – 39% – indicated that the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago raid has made them more likely to vote for Trump.

Lastly, the poll found that, in Ohio, Republicans hold a 10 percentage point lead over the Democrats on the generic ballot.

Overall, it appears that things are looking good for Republicans in Ohio.

Share on facebook
Share To Facebook

Welcome to our comments section. We want to hear from you!

Any comments with profanity, advocacy of violence, harassment, personally identifiable information or other violations will be removed. If you feel your comment has been removed in error please contact us!

Latest Posts