Media outlets regularly report on national surveys showing that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a clear advantage over President Donald Trump. A new poll presents a direct challenge to that narrative.
Zogby Analytics reports that in its latest poll, Biden comes up short against Trump by a margin of eight percentage points.
These results are distinct from the more common presidential preference poll, which asks respondents for their favored candidate. Instead, Zogby pollsters asked 1,007 participants which of the men they believe will actually win in November.
Trump leads among most demographics
In response to this question, 51% chose Trump and 43% chose Biden. The Trump advantage falls well outside of the poll’s 3.1% margin of error.
Breaking down the responses by different demographics, the results show some interesting trends, including a list of “subgroups most likely to believe the president would win” that included born-again Christians, NASCAR fans, union voters, and the recently unemployed.
Trump held an eight-point lead among men and a one-point edge among women in general. Respondents in all but one geographical region of the U.S. believe the incumbent candidate will win another term in the White House.
“The West region (Biden 49%/Trump 42%) disagreed with voters, overall, and felt Biden had the best chance to win in 2020,” the poll revealed.
“We have it neck and neck”
For the sake of comparison, Zogby also conducted a preference poll with results released this month. In that survey, participants were evenly divided between Trump and Biden, who received 46% support each with the remaining 8% undecided.
Jonathan Zogby said of his firm’s poll results that voters and pundits “might be in for a long night come Election Day in November,” acknowledging that his poll was not in line with many that show Biden winning.
“While most polls have him blowing out Trump, like 2016 when Hillary was ahead by double digits in almost every poll, we have it neck and neck,” he said. “Does he have a big enough coalition to defeat Trump? It all depends if the anger in the streets translates into more younger voters for Biden.”
It is true that Trump’s victory in 2016 defied almost all of the pollsters’ predictions during that election cycle.
While only a tally of the votes will determine if Trump will get another term, it is clear there are plenty of Americans are expecting him to do just that.