Poll shows Trump nine points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania

 October 12, 2023

The Washington Post reported last month that some within the Democratic Party are growing nervous over polls that suggest former President Donald Trump is gaining ground among voters.

That nervousness is likely to become more pronounced after a recently published survey showed Trump well ahead of President Joe Biden in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania. 

Trump leads Biden in Keystone State by nine points

Carried out between October 1 and October 4, the poll put support for Trump at 45% while Biden lagged behind at 36%. Eleven percent said they plan to vote for a different candidate while 8% remain undecided.

While Trump is ahead, The Hill noted that Biden's backing appears to be more committed. Whereas 50% of pro-Trump voters said there was nothing he could do to lose their support, the number rose to 53% when Biden voters were questioned.

Spencer Kimball serves as executive director at Emerson College Polling, and he also identified some interesting nuances when voters are broken down by age.

Trump strong with voters under 30

"Biden leads Trump 44% to 39% among voters under 40, however those under 30 within this group break for Trump 45% to 39%," Kimball was quoted as saying in the poll's write-up.

However, many of those same voters who plan to cast a ballot for the former president are also ready to reelect veteran Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey.

"Conversely, Casey leads McCormick 46% to 22% among voters under 40, and leads 42% to 23% with voters under 30," Kimball stressed.

"An additional group that splits their ticket include voters whose highest level of education is a high school degree or less: these voters break for Trump 53% to 27%, while Casey leads this group 36% to 33% over McCormick," he explained.

Poll shows Trump beating Biden in Wisconsin

The Pennsylvania poll was not the only Emerson survey to carry bad news for Biden, as another one conducted in Wisconsin showed Trump ahead of the president by two points.

"In a state Biden won in 2020 by less than a percentage point, and Trump won in 2016 by nearly the same margin, this poll suggests a similar trajectory for 2024," Kimball stated.

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