Poll: Trump leads Biden in key battleground state of Wisconsin

President Donald Trump and his 2020 campaign team have just been given a real reason to celebrate.

Breitbart reports that a newly-released poll from the Trafalgar Group shows President Trump leading presumptive 2020 challenger Joe Biden in the important swing state of Wisconsin. 

Encouraging news for Trump

The Trafalgar poll was made public on Monday after 1,021 likely Wisconsin voters were surveyed between June 23 and June 25. The study found that 46% of respondents favored President Trump, whereas 45% chose Biden.

As such, the president currently has just a 1-point lead, and since the poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3%, the results essentially indicate that Trump and Biden are tied. However, this poll is significant and indeed encouraging, and here’s why.

Anyone who has been watching and reading the news in recent weeks has probably been exposed to a string of polls purporting to show President Trump trailing Biden substantially — often by double-digit margins — including in the state of Wisconsin. Trafalgar’s poll, however, reaches an entirely different result.

Readers may wonder, therefore, whether it is wise to give credence to this new, outlier poll.

Methodology matters

There are several reasons why Americans ought to take the Trafalgar survey results seriously, and a major one has to do with the particular methodology the group’s pollsters employed.

The Trump 2020 team has long cautioned voters to pay attention to — and be skeptical of — the methodology used by different polling outfits. Just recently, Trump campaign spokesperson Tim Murtaugh appeared on Fox News, saying, “Everyone knows that media polling has always been wrong about President Trump –­ they undersample Republicans and don’t screen for likely voters –­ in order to set false narratives.”

Murtaugh is right, of course. As Breitbart reports, nearly all of the polls that have Biden leading Trump survey registered voters, a group that includes people who are able to vote but might choose to just stay home on election day. This is one reason why polls that survey registered — rather than likely — voters are often grossly inaccurate.

Another key difference regarding these Wisconsin results is that the Trafalgar Group poll is characterized by a larger sample size and a smaller margin of error than most of the recent polls that show Trump significantly trailing Biden, Breitbart further noted.

Strong track record

These are already good reasons to think that Trafalgar’s poll might be a little more trustworthy than others. But, there’s more: according to Politico the Trafalgar Group was one of the most accurate polling firms in the 2016 general election — you know, the one in which everyone assumed Hillary Clinton was poised to beat Trump in a landslide.

So, in short, there is very good reason for Trump and his supporters to be excited about these Wisconsin poll results.

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