Pundits and cable news hosts have repeatedly cited polling results over the past several months showing presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a sizable lead over President Donald Trump nationally and among critical swing states.
Despite that narrative, The Hill cited its recent survey in reporting that the former vice president’s advantage appears to be slipping.
Biden’s vanishing lead
Biden’s consistently strong showing among polls as Trump faces criticism for the national coronavirus response has led some Democrats to feel optimism heading into the final months of the presidential race.
The new Hill-Harris X poll, which was conducted between Sunday and Wednesday, finds Trump has narrowed the gap to a three-point deficit — 43% to 40% — nationally.
That result is a marked improvement over the previous survey, which saw Biden leading Trump by seven points.
One factor that has given the Biden campaign confidence ahead of Election Day was the perception that the incumbent president is losing ground across the Midwest.
The region will be critical in Trump’s bid for a second term, and the latest polling results show he is now overtaking the region with 42% favoring him compared to 39% for Biden. Trump is also leading among independent voters with a narrow 35-33 lead.
A new Trump strategy
As for the apparent change in political fortunes, it appears to have corresponded with a change in the Trump campaign’s approach. For starters, Brad Parscale was demoted as campaign manager and was replaced by Bill Stepien.
In addition to the staff shakeup, the president’s team also decided that it would be halting campaign advertisements as staffers reconsidered their messaging.
Trump tweeted that the new campaign would attempt to portray Biden as a tool of his party’s far-left faction.
“He has been brought even further LEFT than Crazy Bernie Sanders ever thought possible,” he wrote.
The president has since painted Biden as someone who is “against God” and “against guns,” which he said would pose an existential threat to the nation if the Democrat wins in November. Whether the new strategy pays off with a re-election victory remains to be seen, but polls appear to show it is an effective move.