New poll finds Trump leading in popular vote and electoral college

With just two days until the election, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in a mad dash to the finish line, but a new Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll released Sunday shows that Trump may be miles ahead of his Democrat challenger. 

According to the poll, Trump holds a slim lead in the popular vote, but a major lead in the electoral college — which is the key to winning the White House.

Shocking results

The poll was conducted among 1,500 likely voters between October 28 and October 30 and shows a massive late shift towards Donald Trump, who was floundering in the polls just weeks ago.

Pollsters found that Trump holds a one-point lead over Biden nationally — 48 percent to 47 percent. Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen took two percent of the vote, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins received one percent.

While Trump’s lead falls well within the poll’s 2.5 percent margin of error, polling of the electoral college tells a much different story.

In order to win the White House, a candidate must win 270 of the available 538 electoral votes. This poll places Trump in the lead by a comfortable margin – 326 to 212. In contrast, Trump won the electoral College 306 votes to Hillary Clinton’s 232 in 2016.

Breitbart reported that “Trump leads in all the states he won in 2016, and is poised to gain 20 additional Electoral College votes in three states Hillary Clinton won in 2016: Minnesota (10 Electoral College votes), Nevada (six Electoral College votes), and New Hampshire (four electoral college votes.)”

In addition, the poll found that Donald Trump is drawing significantly higher support among Black and Hispanic voters during this election cycle than in 2016 — 19 percent of Black voters have voiced support for Trump, compared to just eight percent in 2016. 40 percent of Hispanic voters support Trump now, compared to 28 percent in 2016.

Finishing the race

Democrat-leaning pollsters and mainstream media outlets appear to be in denial about the reality of Trump’s support on the ground. Most mainstream polls do not address the issue of the “shy” Trump voter — those who are afraid to voice their support of Trump for fear of social retaliation.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express does take this type of voter into consideration and asked a series of questions meant to identify those who will not outright declare their support of Trump.

In contrast to the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express pollthe RealClearPolitics national polling average shows Joe Biden with a nearly eight-point lead over Trump.

Despite warnings from Democrat strategists, the Democrat establishment and mainstream media appear to be making the same mistake they made in 2016 — touting positive polls that do not reflect the reality on the ground in hopes of willing a win for their Democrat candidate into existence.

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