A new poll released last week found that more voters preferred Democratic vice-presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) over Vice President Mike Pence in a hypothetical race for president.
The thought of a President Kamala Harris is chilling for conservatives. However, there are reasons why some Americans might be skeptical.
Crunching the numbers
Released last Thursday by Rasmussen, the online and telephone survey of roughly 1,000 voters reported that should both major candidates drop out of the race, half of voters would cast a vote for Harris. By comparison, 45% said they would back Pence.
The polling firm noted that this represented a reversal from four years ago, when Pence bested 2016 Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine by six points.
Still, Rasmussen made clear that this poll’s results were obtained just before Harris and Pence squared off in the first and only vice presidential debate.
Although the poll showed that both candidates had the support of 76% of their parties, Harris was reported to be 10 points ahead among unaffiliated voters.
Something’s not adding up
Like many other polls taken in recent weeks, this report from Rasmussen appears to show that American voters are leaning hard towards the Democratic ticket.
Yet as Blaze TV commentator Steve Deace explained in a series of tweets, those surveys often seem to conflict with what’s happening on the ground.
“Taken as a whole, the narrative of the public polling is this: Joe Biden is a stronger candidate at this stage than Barack Obama was in 2008, and Donald Trump is a weaker incumbent at this stage than George HW Bush was in 1992,” Deace wrote. He added in another post: “The latest @Rasmussen_Poll — the most accurate national poll of 2016 — says Biden is going to out-perform FDR’s final re-elect in 1944 in the midst of WWII.”
Deace noted last Wednesday, “Average margin of victory in Florida the last 7 presidential elections is 2.5 points. Today’s @QuinnipiacPoll has Biden out-performing that by 400%.”
Just a day before, the conservative commentator pointed out suspicious numbers in the Keystone State, remarking, “The Monmouth Poll is claiming Biden is going to out-perform Obama 08 in PA. Obama has the biggest Democrat presidential win since LBJ in 1964.”
Those numbers don’t seem to fit with voter registration trends in the state. Fox News reported that as of June, Pennsylvania Republicans had gained almost 165,000 new voters since 2016, whereas Democrats had only picked up around 30,000.