One of the only polling outlets to correctly predict that President Donald Trump would win the 2016 election has predicted that he will be easily re-elected in 2020 because of the “hidden vote” not being captured in current polling.
Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly said Tuesday night on Fox News’s Hannity that he sees the president “winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” referring to the Electoral College vote, which requires a minimum of 270 to win.
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily,” he added. “These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”
A recent Trafalgar Group poll shows that Trump is in a statistical tie with Democrat opponent Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most crucial battleground state. Biden leads Trump by 1.1% in the poll, which is well within the poll’s margin of error of 2.96%.
Trafalgar an outlier
Trafalgar is an outlier among polling outfits, as shown by the Real Clear Politics polling average that has Biden four points ahead of Trump in battleground states.
The FiveThirtyEight website gives Biden an 88% chance of winning the 2020 election. But here’s the kicker: in 2016, it gave Hillary Clinton virtually the same chance of winning, 87%.
In the case of Trafalgar, the outlier has been right twice now: the group also correctly predicted the 2018 midterm results.
Cahaly said he was “not even going to try” to say when election results would be finalized because of the high number of mail-in ballots. According to Fox News, 35 million people have already voted in the election even though Election Day is not for another 13 days.
He predicted that Trump will hold onto Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia, which all show a slight lead for Biden but are within the margin of error.
Public unsure about election fairness
In a JL Partners-Independent survey, 66% of voters said they were concerned that the election would not be fair.
They are also doubtful that a presidential election result will be known before the election, with 68% saying they doubt the result will be clear even by the day after the election, November 4.
If you were looking forward to the election nonsense being over after November 3, I wouldn’t hold your breath.