The campaign of presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and many in the media have heralded polls showing him with a comfortable nationwide lead over incumbent President Donald Trump.
When the most recent surveys from key battleground states are considered, however, it appears a Biden win is not as certain as some pundits would like voters to believe.
Biden’s lead shrinks
As Breitbart reported, poll results released on Thursday from Cardinal Point Analytics show Trump with a two-point lead over Biden in North Carolina. He leads the former vice president 48-46 in that poll, with 3% of respondents reporting that they were undecided.
Though still a tight race, this data stands in contrast to national polls, some of which attributed a double-digit lead to the Biden campaign.
Some Democrats have seen those polls as evidence that widespread disfavor with Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic will be enough to tank his hopes of a second term.
As the race continues to tighten ahead of Election Day, however, North Carolina is not the only critical state in which Biden has seen his lead evaporate.
A recent Change/CNBC poll shows Trump shaving points off of his deficit in other battleground states. According to those results, Biden retains a lead of about three points on average in these states, though the margins are shrinking.
Since defying expectations with his 2016 victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, many Trump supporters have held to the belief that a significant number of voters intend to support the president’s re-election but opt against revealing that information to pollsters.
“They get some of these people who say they have no opinion or are undecided when they really are Trump supporters,” a Trump campaign source told the Washington Times. “The big thing the polls are doing is just underrepresenting Republicans, and it’s blatant.”
Of course, not all political insiders share that confidence and warn against assuming that the polls are completely wrong.
Christopher Borick, director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, said that if Trump’s team “is banking on the polls systematically understating his support, they are likely to be disappointed.”
If the gap between Trump and Biden continues to narrow, however, a handful of “hidden” Trump voters could go a long way.