One pollster is predicting a massive victory for Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections.
Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies believes that Republicans could win upwards of 40 House seats in 2022, the Washington Examiner reports.
Bolger believes that we are heading for a repeat of 2018, when the Republicans lost 41 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Bolger bases this prediction on analogous circumstances. He believes that the Democrats are going to lose a massive number of seats in 2022 for the same reason that the Republicans lost them in 2018: Americans not being happy with the job that the president is doing.
As Bolger pointed out, we know Americans are not happy with President Joe Biden because they have said as much in the polls. Real Clear Politics, for example, has Biden’s net approval rating at -4.1 percent. And, significantly, it has Biden’s average disapproval rating over 50 percent for the first time.
Bolger, though, also pointed to some other signs that Democrats are heading for defeat in 2022. One, said Bolger, is the fact that Republicans have made “significant inroads” with all groups except younger voters, a group that Bolger says isn’t likely to matter much given its typical turnout numbers.
Bolger also pointed to generic congressional ballots, which, he noted, are tied for the first time since 2015. Generic congressional ballots are those in which poll participants are asked whether they are more like to support the Republican Party or Democratic Party, rather than specific candidates.
According to Bolger, all of this adds up to 2022 being a repeat of 2018, except with the Democrats being the losers instead of the winners.
Two things that Bolder did not address are redistricting and the U.S. Senate. With regard to redistricting, experts believe that Republicans have a slight edge given two things: the results of the recent census and the party in charge of redistricting in areas of significance.
Regarding the U.S. Senate, pollsters such as Zoby believe that there, too, Republicans may be favored if Biden continues down the track that he is now on.
If the Republicans were to pick up about 40 seats in the House, that would give them more than a 30 seat advantage following the 2022 midterms. It is unclear how big of an advantage Republicans could get in the Senate.
But, Biden and the Democrats’ agenda may soon be coming to a grinding halt. Expect them to go all out to get in what they can while they can.