For much of the past year, most polls have shown President Donald Trump lagging behind his Democratic challenger in terms of support from voters.
While that’s led many observers to predict the president’s downfall, Daily Caller correspondent Caity McDuffee spoke earlier this year with one political scientist who says there’s an important factor they’re missing — a factor that, when considered, puts Trump’s chances of winning at over 90%.
Flashback to the primaries
In an interview from July that was revived by the Daily Caller just days before November’s elections, Dr. Helmut Norpoth, a professor at New York’s Stony Brook University, explained to McDuffee that historically, the best predictor of victory in a presidential election is how each candidate fared in their respective primaries.
McDuffee began the interview by pointing out that by using his primary model, Norpoth was among the few experts to predict that Trump would beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016. The Daily Caller reporter also stressed that when looking back at history, Norpoth’s model can be used to successfully predict the outcome in 25 of the past 27 elections.
“I give Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning,” Norpoth said over the summer. “That is in the electoral college — I’m very clear about that.”
He explained: “I bypass the popular vote because we had that problem last time, so everything, in the end, depends on the electoral college breakdown, and I give Donald Trump a sizable lead in the electoral college and that translate into this very high certainty that he’s going to win at least 270 electoral votes.”
He’s not out of the fight yet
The idea that Trump may still win the election despite being down in national polling has been echoed across the board, and it’s only been bolstered by recent polls showing the president neck-and-neck with Biden in some swing states.
According to the most recent polling from The Guardian, the two candidates are in a dead heat in the battlegrounds of Florida, North Carolina, and Iowa, while Trump leads slightly in Ohio.
Indeed, it’s clear, at least as far as the president is concerned, that the fight isn’t over yet.
Joe Biden is a corrupt politician. He wants to send YOUR jobs to China, while his family rakes in millions from the Chinese Communist Party. If Biden wins, China will OWN the USA. When we win, YOU win, Wisconsin wins, and AMERICA wins! #VOTE
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 27, 2020