Prominent pollster says GOP polling ‘virtually impossible’ after Biden MAGA comments

Trafalgar Group head pollster Robert Cahaly said Saturday on Twitter that President Joe Biden’s classification of MAGA Republicans as a threat to democracy will make GOP voters “virtually impossible to poll” ahead of the midterm elections and in 2024. 

In a series of tweets, Cahaly laid out his case and said it would be worse than in 2016 when Hillary Clinton called Republicans “deplorables.”

Cahaly predicted even more “submerged voters” in the GOP this time–voters who don’t put out yard signs or stickers on their cars, post their opinions, or answer polls.

“Army of voters”

“At this point, I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate,” he wrote across multiple tweets.

He believes that his own polling and polling from other sources are undercounting Republican votes, but doesn’t know by how much at this point. Cahaly has found agreement from an unlikely source on the left.

NYT analyst agrees

New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn is also warning that mainstream polling is overestimating the strength of Democrats in current polling.

“The apparent Democratic strength in Wisconsin and elsewhere is a mirage—an artifact of persistent and unaddressed biases in survey research,” Cohn wrote earlier this month.

His main point is that pollsters are still using the same flawed methodology that saw them get things so wrong in previous elections.

“If the polls are wrong yet again, it will not be hard to explain. Most pollsters haven’t made significant methodological changes since the last election,” he said.

In 2020, mainstream polling gave Biden a nearly 10-point edge over Trump, but in the actual election, Biden only won by a razor-thin margin in key battleground states.

The current generic polling gives Democrats only a one-point advantage over Republicans, which will not be nearly enough to overcome the estimated 10 points of bias built into the system at this point.