Race to the White House has released a prediction in the Texas governor’s race, giving incumbent Governor Greg Abbott (R) an 83.6% chance of winning the race, with Democrat rival Beto O’Rourke only having a 16.4% chance of winning.
The site also predicted that Abbott would win by 8.6%, a healthy margin of victory.
Abbott currently has 48% of the vote in Race to WH’s polling, as opposed to O’Rourke’s 41%.
The site claims that it has been more accurate than all other pollsters in its governor predictions, even predicting a triple Democrat victory in Georgia in 2020.
Abbott’s perfect record
The incumbent has been a fixture in Texas politics since the 1990s, when then-Governor George W. Bush appointed him to the Texas State Supreme Court.
Abbott then won two more terms on the court, three terms as attorney general, and two terms as governor.
He has not lost an election in the state in 25 years and does not plan to start losing now.
Beto O’Rourke really should not have any chance in a state like Texas with his liberal politics and calls to take people’s AR-15s away from them, but he came within 2.6% of beating Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2018 as Cruz was running for a second term in the Senate. Admittedly, 2018 was a blue wave year when many Democrats were elected compared to normal.
Red wave coming
This year seems the opposite, with Republicans significantly ahead in the congressional generic ballot and expected to sweep into a House majority and possibly even a Senate one amid deep dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s policies and those of the Democrats in general.
Abbott should not have much trouble being re-elected in the middle of the red wave coming, if things remain as they are now.
He has remained popular due to his strong stance on regulating the border better, while he has been criticized for having one of the strictest abortion laws in the entire country.
Overall, though, it seems that Texas voters think he’s a better option than O’Rourke.