The U.S. Census Bureau’s latest report appears to be good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats.
Reports indicate that, based on the Census Bureau’s latest figures, several Republican states will gain seats in the U.S. House and several Democrat states will lose seats.
That’s because the apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives is based on a state’s population. And, the Census Bureau’s latest report has found that the population has been increasing in Republican areas of the country and decreasing in the Democratic areas.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich commented on Monday on what is driving this shift. He said: “You’ve never seen a clearer contrast between a high tax big bureaucracy unionized machine system in all of these states run by Democratic governors and a free enterprise small business entrepreneurship, low tax system as we are seeing in almost all the Republican states — and the result is exactly what human nature tells you it would be, people leave the pain, they go to the pleasure and the migration is just going to continue.”
The winners and losers
The big news here is that both Texas and Florida are expected to gain seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Texas will gain two seats, raising its House membership from 36 to 38 members, and Florida will gain one seat, raising its House membership from 27 to 28 members.
Other states that will gain one House seat each are Colorado Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon.
On the other hand, a number of deep blue states will lose seats in the House, including both New York and California, which will lose one seat each. This, in fact, will be the first time in the state’s history that California will lose a House seat.
Other states that will lose one House seat each are Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
The expectation is that those Republican states that have gained seats in the House will put another Republican in the House. This is likely, but not necessarily, the case.
It will all depend on the redistricting that takes place. The good news is that state-level lawmakers control this process. But, any significant partisan gerrymandering could backfire.
We ought to also not forget that a state’s population along with its number of congressional districts determine the number of electoral college votes that each state gets.
Accordingly, not only could this population shift affect the House of Representatives in the coming years, particularly in the 2022 midterm elections, which Republicans may now be favored to win, but it could also have a big impact on the 2024 presidential race.