A pollster who correctly predicted President Donald Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania four years ago thinks he is favored win the state again — and the election.
The Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly has released a new poll that shows Trump powering ahead — by a small margin — in the critical swing state, The Washington Times reports.
“You are not getting honest answers”
According to the Times, the Trafalgar Group’s latest survey found that 1,076 likely Pennsylvanian voters were split 48.4% for Trump, 47.6% for Biden. While that is still within the poll’s 2.9% margin of error, it is a better result for Trump than what shows up in most polling.
The popular RealClearPolitics average shows Trump down in most swing states and at the national level, and Trump has a roughly four-point deficit in Pennsylvania.
Still, America hasn’t forgotten the president’s surprise national victory four year ago, when the president narrowly won Pennsylvania, becoming the first Republican candidate to carry the state in decades, according to a report from Just The News.
Cahaly was one of a few who correctly predicted the outcome last time, and he is confident that Trump will win a second term, insisting that pollsters are still discounting the “shy Trump voter” effect.
“These people are a lot more hesitant to not participate in polls, so if you are not compensating for this, if you are not trying to give them a poll they can participate in with a lower threshold that would make them feel more comfortable that it is anonymous, you are not getting honest answers,” he told Fox News’ Sean Hannity last week, according to Breitbart.
Trump gaining ground?
In Arizona, for example, Trafalgar has Trump up by four points, compared to RealClearPolitics’ (RCP’s) result, which shows Biden up by two. RCP has the candidates tied in Florida, but in Trafalgar’s sampling, Trump is leading by two points.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Florida (a must-win), that puts him in a good position to win the 270 electoral votes he needs for a second term.
“I see the president winning with a minimum [electoral vote count in the] high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Trafalgar told Fox News this week, as Breitbart reported.
Is Trump about to prove the critics wrong again?