In recent weeks, political pundits have highlighted the fact that many national polls show Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a significant advantage over President Donald Trump.
It will be the winner of the electoral vote, however, who becomes the next president — and one potential path through an important swing state could secure a second term for the president, as reported by Breitbart.
An important district
A recent Bangor Daily News/Digital Research survey gives Trump an eight-point advantage in Maine’s second congressional district.
That poll was conducted between Sept. 25 and Oct. 4 and the results fall outside of its 6.2% margin of error.
Unlike in many states, Maine has a proportional system for allocating electoral votes, which means a Trump win in that district could benefit him on Election Day even if Biden wins the state as he is predicted to do.
Breitbart presented a scenario in which Trump “holds Georgia, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, along with all the deep red states,” giving him 259 electoral votes — 11 short of a win.
Even if he lost Michigan and Pennsylvania, he could win Wisconsin and its 10 votes and, along with the lone vote from Maine’s second district, would meet the threshold for re-election.
Another promising poll
Some of those battleground-state wins will come easier than others, but Breitbart also reported on a poll showing Trump ahead of Biden in Ohio. That survey, conducted by the Trafalgar Group, gave the president a four-point lead.
“The survey of 1,035 likely voters found Trump at 47.6 percent, with Joe Biden at 43.9 percent,” the pollsters found. “Just 3.6 percent of voters say they were undecided.”
Of course, other statewide polls have ended up with different results, including a Fox News survey last month that showed the former vice president with a five-point lead over Trump.
Voters are sure to remember, however, the overwhelming number of polls predicting a resounding victory for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton four years ago — including one poll showing her with at 10-point advantage. On Election Day, Trump won the state by eight percentage points.
It remains to be seen whether the polls are any more reliable this election season, but the latest developments in Ohio and Maine certainly play to the president’s advantage.