Texas poll shows 50 percent support for Trump, five point lead over Biden

Some Democrats seem to believe that their presidential nominee, Joe Biden, might be able to take Texas in the general election this November. The polls, however, would disagree.

The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll has President Donald Trump with a healthy lead on Biden. 

The numbers

Likely voters in Texas were recently asked, “Who would get your vote for president today?”

50 percent of respondents chose the Trump/Pence ticket, while 45 percent chose that of Biden/Harris. The remaining 5 percent went to “others.”

The poll was conducted from September 25th to October 4th, which is a period that saw the first presidential debate and the president’s coronavirus diagnosis. 908 likely voters were surveyed, and the poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.25 percentage points.

The latest numbers remain consistent with earlier Texas polls. One taken in June, for example, had Trump leading Biden, 48 percent to 44, and, in April, Trump led 49 to 44.

It’s not all good news

There are some areas of concern. One is the results when broken down according to party affiliation. Among Republicans, 92 percent prefer Trump, and, among Democrats, 96 percent prefer Biden.

Independent voters in Texas, however, prefer Biden, 45 percent to 37. This could be important.

Another area of concern found by this latest poll is that Trump’s 5 point lead on Biden is actually less than one would expect it to be.

A generic Republican candidate, according to previous polls, would, in Texas, be expected to hold a 7-percentage-point lead over a generic Democrat candidate.

Is a platform necessary these days?

Another interesting finding is that, among those voters who prefer Biden, 45 percent said that they are voting for Biden simply because they don’t want Trump to be re-elected. In other words, only 55 percent of Biden’s supporters prefer him because they actually want him to be president. The corresponding numbers for Trump supporters are 19 and 81 percent, respectively.

This highlights what seems to be the fact that Biden and the Democrats are largely running, not on a platform, but on some voters’ dislike of President Trump. The question, which will soon be answered, is whether this strategy will be enough to win the general election.

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