While President Donald Trump’s recent positive coronavirus result has created additional uncertainties regarding the state of the presidential election, new polling results show the race continues to tighten in the final weeks before Nov. 3.
According to a new Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP survey taken after Tuesday’s debate, the president has enjoyed a three-point swing in his favor over the past week, revealing the race to essentially be a tossup, as reported by Breitbart.
Major gains in recent weeks
Trump critics in the Democratic Party and mainstream media have long cited national polling that showed Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a sizable advantage over the incumbent, despite evidence of Trump’s competitiveness in all-important battleground states.
Nevertheless, the new poll showing Trump’s post-debate bounce was conducted by one of the few major firms to accurately predict the 2016 election outcome.
#NEW National Post-Debate Poll:
IBD/TIPP (LV, 9/30-10/1 )
A 3 point shift towards Trump in a week
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 2, 2020
Pollsters surveyed 1,221 registered voters — including 1,021 likely voters — between Wednesday and Thursday. The results showed Biden with support from 48.6% of respondents compared to Trump’s 45.9% support — a gap that falls within the poll’s margin of error.
Results were mixed on specific issues, with Biden viewed as the winner of the debate by a margin of 44% to 33%. On the topics of the Supreme Court, economy, and mental sharpness, however, Trump came out on top.
A variety of factors
Biden’s vanishing lead among voters in general, however, has been a theme in a series of recent polls. At the beginning of September, Biden enjoyed an eight-point lead over his rival, but that had dwindled to just 5.6 points by Sept. 21.
As pollsters indicated, voter intensity is cited as a potential factor in the president’s increasing momentum. This method of measuring the strength of a candidate’s support echoes multiple prior reports portraying Biden voters as less enthusiastic overall than Trump voters.
According to the latest poll, nearly three in four Trump supporters say they strongly back him. Only one in three Biden voters said the same about their chosen candidate.
Other positive signs for Trump’s re-election campaign include an increase in support among Hispanic and Black voters compared to the 2016 election results and a perception among a majority of respondents that he will ultimately win the election.
Of course, the wave of COVID-19 infections throughout the Trump administration since the poll was conducted has proven that anything can change in the final days of a campaign. Shifts like those seen in several recent surveys, however, indicate that Election Day is not likely to be the Biden blowout many Democrats are hoping to see.