Poll: Trump gaining on Biden, retains support among key swing voters

Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is shedding support according to a recently-released survey.

A new Zogby Analytics poll found that President Donald Trump is trailing his rival by just four points, a closer margin than suggested by many other polls, and it indicated that he is winning among critical swing voter groups, as the Washington Examiner reported.

Good news for Trump

“The horse race between Trump and Biden is closer than it appears,” said pollster Jonathan Zogby’s assessment of the results.

According to the poll, 40% of respondents favored Trump, compared with 44% who favored Biden. Some 9% remain undecided.

Many polls have given the impression that Donald Trump is trailing Biden by big margins, and there is even speculation that the president is in danger of losing battleground states that he won in 2016, like Florida and Ohio.

But Biden’s advantage is apparently not as solid as it looks. Powering Trump, according to Zogby, is a commanding 3–1 lead (65% to 21%) with swing voters in Midwestern states — the so-called Obama/Trump voters who switched parties in 2016.

“Why is this important for Trump? In 2016 these voters comprised of nearly 6 million voters, and nearly all of these voters were white, and many lived in rust belt and mid-western states. Trump is not down for the count yet.”

Pollster: Trump needs suburban support

President Trump has recently made a play for suburban voters by sending the message that Biden will destroy the “Suburban Lifestyle Dream” by encouraging low-income housing developments. Meanwhile, Biden has sought to gain ground in Rust Belt states like Ohio by promising to bring back lost manufacturing jobs, as the Toledo Blade noted.

According to Zogby, Trump needs to retain his core of Obama/Trump voters and win back some of the suburbanites he has lost since 2016, many of whom now support Biden robustly. The Democrat is leading with suburban women by a substantial margin, according to the poll (53% to Trump’s 31%).

“While swing voters are going to play an important role in the November presidential election, they are not the only factor associated with how the presidential election will be won by either Joe Biden or Donald Trump,” Zogby said.

The pollster put things plainly, saying, “For Biden, this means banking on youth discontentment and hoping the anger in the streets of cities across the nation will translate into a big voter turnout for the Democrats.”

Zogby concluded, “For Trump, it means hoping swing voters stay in his column and he improves his performance with suburban voters. Both scenarios are easier said than done for each candidate.”

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