Trump's felony convictions aren't hurting his campaign: poll

 June 11, 2024

At the beginning of the process, legal scholars and pundits believed that a guilty decision would be extremely catastrophic.

In fact, a poll conducted by Siena and the Times in October revealed that a guilty verdict would swing the election decisively in favor of President and candidate Joe Biden, as The Hill reported.

The study predicted that the incumbent president would win by a margin of ten points, with 49 % of the vote vs 39 %.

Public Opinion

However, at the time the poll was carried out, it appeared like Trump would also be standing trial in all or part of his other charges, including the mishandling of sensitive data, the voter and election interference cases, and the cases involving interference with elections, prior to the election that will take place in November.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that a conviction will have little to no impact on Trump's prospects of winning the election.

This is thought likely to be due to the fact that it is almost inevitable that the "hush money" case in New York City, which has been considered the weakest and least politically significant case for a long time, will be the only case to resolve before the election.

In the most recent survey conducted by Times/Siena, which was made public on June 5th, 2,000 voters who had previously participated in their polls in April and May were re-interviewed.

More Favorable Outcomes for Trump

Voters gave Trump a three-point advantage over Biden in the initial interview, with 48 % of them favoring Trump over 45 %.

After the verdict, Biden had gained two points on Trump among this demographic, putting the race 47 % to 46 % in favor of Trump, which resulted in a virtual tie between the two candidates.

Despite the considerable media attention that has been surrounding the experiment, it is likely that the slight shift away from Trump that has occurred, which is well within the margin of error, does not provide the results that many Democrats had anticipated or expected.

What's Coming

In spite of the fact that some surveys, such as the New York Times/Siena survey that was stated earlier, indicate that Trump is experiencing a modest negative impact, other polls indicate that the situation is actually considerably more complicated.

Two polls that were done following Trump's conviction, which should have shown a downturn in public opinion if it were going to happen, indicate that the race was not significantly affected by the news.

According to HarrisX, a majority of respondents (44 %) stated that the ruling will not have any effect on their vote, and the remaining votes were virtually split, with a slight lean toward support for Trump.

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