Two election analysts change midterm predictions to heavily favor House Republicans

Two new reports indicate that House Democrats may be in an even worse position than previously thought heading into this year’s midterm elections.

One of the reports comes from The Cook Political Report, and it shows that 27 House Democrat seats are now considered to be “toss-up” contests. 

A “toss-up” seat is one in which “either party has a good chance of winning.” For the Cook Political Report, it is “the most competitive” label that it could give to a contest.

“Toss-up or worse”

“This week, we’re moving eight Democratic-held seats into more competitive categories,” the report reads. “With these changes, there are 27 Democratic seats in Toss-Up or worse.”

The eight districts include Indiana’s 1st, Nevada’s 3rd; Nevada’s 4th, New Jersey’s 3rd, New York’s 4th, New York’s 19th, North Carolina’s 1st, and Virginia’s 7th.

The Cook Political Report goes on to say that this “list is certain to grow longer when Florida and New Hampshire finalize their lines.”

The Cook Political Report writes, “no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising ‘reach’ opportunities.”

On the other hand, The Cook Political Report says that “there are only 12 GOP-held seats in Toss-Up or worse – all of which are due to redistricting, not atmospheric factors.”

Red wave incoming

In addition to The Cook Political Report, the University of Virginia Center for Politics also recently released its own report changing its midterm election predictions to heavily favor Republicans.

The Center for Politics, in its latest report, changed 11 districts in a way that is beneficial to Republicans. Some of the changes are from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat,” from “Safe Democrat” to “Likely Democrat,” from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-up,” and still others from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican.”

The Center for Politics writes that Republicans are the “strong favorites to win the House majority.”

Republicans only need to net five House seats to regain control of the House in this year’s midterm elections. The consensus is that Republicans are heavily favored to pull this off. The question that remains, though, is just how big the Republicans’ margin of victory will be. Some are predicting historic numbers – we’ll see.

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