Poll numbers, shrinking voter registration gap, signal good news for Trump in Florida

Good news from Florida has Democrats worried.

Republicans are closing the voter registration gap in Florida, and have made history in the process, according to a report from Breitbart.

Republicans close the gap

This information comes by way of Florida’s Division of Elections, which has just released new voter registration data. What the data shows is that Republicans have been significantly lowering the voter registration gap in Florida since 2016.

Since that year, when then-candidate Donald Trump won both Florida and the presidency, Republicans have added 444,922 voters. 301,479 voters since 2018. And the Democrats have failed to keep up.

Since 2018, the Democrats have only managed to add 227,900 voters in Florida. And, since 2016, only 298,090.

If we tally up the numbers, what we see is that Democrats still lead Florida overall in terms of voters registered, at 5,303,254, but the Republicans are catching up, now at 5,169,012.

The difference between those two numbers is 134,242, which, believe it or not, is the smallest lead the Democrats have ever held in Florida. It is historically the narrowest margin.

Why it matters

The fact is that the Democratic voter registration lead was larger in 2016 than now, and yet Trump won Florida by a margin of 112,911 votes. So, one could infer that, with the gap narrowing, Trump’s chances of winning the state again go way up.

It ought to be noted, though, that, in Florida, 3,753,286 people are unaffiliated, neither having registered with the Republican or Democratic party. In other words, there is a sizeable group of people out there who could swing the election one way or the other.

Most polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, seem to show the race for Florida is fairly close. A recent survey by Trafalgar Group, for example, has President Donald Trump leading Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 48.4 percent to 46.1 percent. That 2.3 percentage point lead is within the survey’s plus or minus 2.94 percentage point margin of error.

Trump appears to like his chances of once again taking Florida. He tweeted on Friday, “Polls numbers are looking very strong. Big crowds, great enthusiasm. Massive RED WAVE coming!!!”

If Trump is going to win he is certainly going to need to take Florida. And, like he says, the signs are looking good that he will.

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